Entries by Chris Borg

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – April 2018

Economic Overview January’s burst of equity-market euphoria has given way to fear of a trade war, a more hawkish Fed and the return of volatility. The challenge of late-cycle investing is that equity valuations are stretched, there are worries about the economy overheating and the Fed is taking away the punchbowl.  At the same time, […]

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – March 2018

Economic Overview Ten years since the global financial crisis, investors can find differing signals in the market.  On the one hand, there are signs that economic growth is becoming less dependent on stimulus from central banks.  On the other hand, valuations appear to be stretched for most asset classes.  History suggests that average economic cycles […]

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – January 2018

Economic Overview For the first time since the global financial crisis, world GDP growth is increasingly strong and synchronous, although it has been supported by loose monetary and fiscal policy. Looking to 2018, we believe that the growth momentum will continue and this would be broadly supportive of growth assets. However, there are risks that […]

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – December 2017

Economic Overview The increasing breadth of the global economic expansion suggests the global expansion is sustainable and will last longer, with the US demonstrating the most advanced recovery in the current economic cycle.  This has resulted in inflation picking up in the US but moving sideways at low levels in the Eurozone, supporting monetary policy […]

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – November 2017

  Economic Overview With the global synchronised recovery and central banks unwinding the quantitative easing measures, the global economy is now in the best form since the global financial crisis.  Looking beyond the immediate horizon, the next financial crisis could arise from:  (1) Rising inflation.  Central banks have less ammunition to deal with the next […]

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – October 2017

Economic Overview Worries over geopolitics and the slide in US inflation data are amply offset by the continued and synchronised pick-up in global growth.  Despite the relative maturity of the US business cycle, recession risks remain muted and a combination of global earnings upgrades and loose financial conditions are supportive for shares and other risk […]

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – July 2017

  Economic Overview The dominant global theme in June has been the increase in rhetoric from central banks – other than the US Federal Reserve – suggesting the day is nearing when emergency policy stimulus will need to be unwound. Global bond yields rose as a result, while the US dollar weakened.  ECB President Mario […]