Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – February 2019
Last year, there was a notable increase in market volatility and a decline in global economic growth from its previous high in the first part of 2018. The increase in volatility was the result of a number of factors including:
increased geopolitical tensions, primarily in the form of protectionist measures by the US with its key economic partners China and Europe,
a normalisation of interest rates in the US,
tightening of liquidity
Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – January 2019
With the US moving into the later stages of the business cycle, the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and monetary and credit conditions diverging widely across the other major global economies, the potential for renewed volatility in both equity and fixed income markets remains high.
Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – December 2018
After rebounding in Q2 to a new cycle high of 4.1%, global growth was more mixed in Q3, likely slowing a little below its recent 4% pace. US growth remained very strong, but eased to 3.0% pace. European growth slumped below 2%, while growth in China also eased modestly. Elsewhere, data across the UK, Japan and parts of the emerging markets were also less robust. A number of developments are increasingly challenging an otherwise solid outlook. This includes an intensification of political instability in Europe and the UK. The European Union (EU) continued to debate the new Italian Government’s more stimulatory fiscal stance, while the UK once again is trying to make progress on Brexit. Middle East tensions have also risen between the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran.