Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – January 2020
The key theme for 2019 was the return of central banks, importantly the US Federal Reserve, which, in the absence of a recession, pushed the litany of geopolitical concerns (trade war, Hong Kong protests, Brexit, Middle East tensions, US presidential impeachment) into the background. It was, as a result, a much better year for investors across the board.Monthly-Notes-January-2020.pdf
Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – December 2019
2019 has been unpredictable for investors, with weaker economic growth and ongoing geopolitical tensions resulting in heightened volatility for investment markets. Looking ahead to 2020, the themes of weaker economic growth and geopolitical tensions are expected to continue. Trade friction and broader economic and policy uncertainty is expected to reduce economic growth and continue to generate volatility in markets.Monthly-Notes-December-2019.pdf
Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – November 2019
The two main developments in the past month are:
1. More strident commentary from the IMF and central banks that monetary policy (whether adopting low interest rates or quantitative easing policies) are becoming less effective to support economic growth as interest rates are already very low, and that fiscal policy (via increased government spending and lower taxes) will have to step in. However, most governments have been reluctant to adopt looser fiscal policies to-date, but this may change in the coming year.
2. Growing realisation in the US and China that the ongoing trade dispute and escalating tariffs are impacting the US and Chinese economies, with signs that tariffs may be wound back and a trade agreement could be signed.Monthly-Notes-November-20191.pdf