Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – September 2019

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – September 2019

Economic Overview

The underlying fundamentals for the global economy remain solid, reflecting tight global jobs markets, low inflation and very low interest rates. However, China’s new more aggressive negotiating position would portend further escalation in the US-China trade dispute, challenging the ability of the global economy to stabilise this year.  Recent data suggest growth in the world economy slowed significantly in Q2 to 3.3% from its 4.3% pace just a year ago. The slowdown has been relatively evenly spread across both advanced and developing economies.  Global growth remains well supported by historically ’easy’ monetary policy and near-universally tight jobs markets. The US consumer remains robust, China is amid renewed stimulus and domestic growth in Europe and Japan is solid. Australia has likely passed the worst of its housing crisis and recent business investment plans are holding up well.  However the risks have increased that the cacophony of geo-political noise could sufficiently crush global business confidence and capex plans, so as to undermine the otherwise strong jobs and consumer sectors that are currently supporting growth and company earnings across the world.

Monthly-Notes-September-2019.pdf