Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – October 2017

Monthly Notes - Header Oct

Economic Overview

Worries over geopolitics and the slide in US inflation data are amply offset by the continued and synchronised pick-up in global growth.  Despite the relative maturity of the US business cycle, recession risks remain muted and a combination of global earnings upgrades and loose financial conditions are supportive for shares and other risk assets. Globally, central banks remain in mostly dovish mood; and even with balance sheet normalisation in the US and tapering of quantitative easing in Europe set to start, policy around the world is still loose.  Equity returns in late cycle are typically positive unless financial conditions tighten sharply.  The slow pace of rate normalisation and lack of inflation pressure create a good environment for taking risk.  Any deterioration in data, in particular employment, business confidence and consumer lending metrics, may trigger a review of holding risk assets.

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