Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – October 2018

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – October 2018

Economic Overview

The synchronised global expansion of 2017 has long receded.  Growth has not only plateaued, but it has also become more uneven across regions this year.  Increasing economic divergence and different performance of various asset classes are typical of an ageing expansion.  The consensus is that we are currently in late-cycle of the current economic expansion. However, it does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that a recession is immediately imminent.  In fact, a late-cycle expansion can last if excesses and major policy mistakes are avoided.  A recession over a three- to five-year horizon is quite likely, but it is not currently visible in the immediate horizon.

Monthly-Notes-October-2018.pdf