Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – November 2018

Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – November 2018

Economic Overview

Global GBP growth is expected to slow from 3.9% in 2018 to trend-like 3.6% in 2019 and 3.7% in 2020.  The recent era of low interest rates and low inflation (‘lower for longer’) has now transitioned to a period of rising interest rates, rising wages and central bank tightening.  However, there are mixed views whether the current environment can be characterised as ‘late cycle’, given that the US, EU and Japanese economies are not exhibiting characteristics of a typical ‘late cycle’ expansion.  The implication is that this cycle could extend, especially if inflation continues to rise slowly.  The risks for the current cycle are trade policy, US fiscal policy and central bank policies, and these factors should be monitored.

Monthly-Notes-November-2018.pdf