Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes-May 2017

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Economic Overview

Politics remain a key focus for markets, but the latest developments in Europe are positive. In France, the first round of the presidential election ruled out the least market-friendly outcome, and although eurosceptic Marine Le Pen is in the run-off as expected, polls suggest reformist Macron should win. The snap election called in Britain for June is a material positive game-changer for Brexit negotiations.  Beyond politics, focus has been on fading conviction in so-called Trump trades – higher inflation expectations and interest rates and buoyant risk assets – following speed bumps on the US domestic agenda and increased geopolitical tension.

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