Newell Palmer: Monthly Economic Notes – December 2018
After rebounding in Q2 to a new cycle high of 4.1%, global growth was more mixed in Q3, likely slowing a little below its recent 4% pace. US growth remained very strong, but eased to 3.0% pace. European growth slumped below 2%, while growth in China also eased modestly. Elsewhere, data across the UK, Japan and parts of the emerging markets were also less robust. A number of developments are increasingly challenging an otherwise solid outlook. This includes an intensification of political instability in Europe and the UK. The European Union (EU) continued to debate the new Italian Government’s more stimulatory fiscal stance, while the UK once again is trying to make progress on Brexit. Middle East tensions have also risen between the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran.